Photo credit: @MLBStats
By Lewis Rubman
Mark Canha’s walk off double, following Homer Bailey and the bullpen’s (yes, you read that right) 11-inning shutout win over the Royals has faded into recent history, and so has the euphoria it brought. The A’s have a day off, and we have a chance to take a dispassionate look, if baseball fans are allowed to use that adjective, at how things stand for the team.
First of all, no one now has even unspoken illusions about catching up with Houston in the regular season. The Astros hold an eight-game lead over Oakland with nine games to go for each team. Even if the A’s won all their remaining games, all Houston would need is one win to finish the season with a tie for the best record in the AL West. All that would get the A’s would be the chance to play the tie-breaker at the Coliseum.
The A’s outlook is brighter in the wild card race. Boston will be eliminated unless it wins every game left on its schedule and the team it trails loses all of its. Cleveland is on the ropes, which means that there’s a good chance that what’s left for Oakland is a battle by proxy with Tampa Bay for the right to be the home team in the one and done play-in round to determine the wild card team that will get the chance to battle Houston in the ALDS. The one-shot nature of the wild card game and the brevity of the best three out of five format for the ALDS accentuate the craps shoot nature of the whole process. The closest thing to a sure bet is that, if you care enough to read this column, your blood pressure will rise between now and at least October 2, when we’ll finally know–weather permitting–whether Oakland, Cleveland, or Tampa Bay will be on its way to Minute Maid Park to open the Division Series.
Let’s look first at the Indians, if only to take a guess at their chances of displacing the Rays as the A’s play-in opponent, although we shouldn’t forget that there is a possibility, however unlikely this morning, that Cleveland will overtake both Oakland and Tampa Bay and make one of those teams an also ran.
FanGraphs’ probability ratings make no claim to be infallible; their very name indicates that. But they are an extremely valuable tool for assessing a ball club’s chances. They give the Indians a mere 44% chance of making the play offs, which is our immediate concern, and, incidentally, a 42.8% of winning the division title, which would mean defeating Houston in the ALDS. The same source offers a probable season’s won-lost record of 94.5-67.5 for the Tribe. (That half a win points to the difference between a real season and a statistically analyzed one).
Still on the Indians’ schedule are a game against Detroit and a two game inter-league series against the Phillies, both at Progressive Park, né The Jake. Daniel Norris, who pitched well as an opener in the Bengals’ 3-1 September 8 loss, which was charged against him, will start for Detroit. Although the Tigers haven’t announced it, he most likely will be used in the same role today. His opponent, Mike Clevenger, is 11-3, 2.68 ERA, so don’t count on Cleveland’s elimination number dropping today.
Philadelphia, like Cleveland, is hanging on to the chance of a wild card spot, having an elimination number of eight in its division at this writing. Looking at the pitching match ups and the teams’ batting records, I think the Indians have the edge in the series, so Oakland shouldn’t count on getting help from the Phillies.
Like the A’s, the Tribe will finish its season on the road. They’ll start with a three game set on the south side of Chicago. Cleveland’s current 89-63 record is three games off from being a mirror images of the ChiSox’ 66-86, but that doesn’t mean that the Sox are a push over. The Indians are hitting only .239 against their pitching, albeit with a more respectible OPS of .711, and trail them 7-9 in the season series.
Washington will be Cleveland’s last opponent in the regular season. The Nats currently occupy second place in the NL East, where they have been eliminated from the division race and are in the first wild card position by a game and a half.
In short, it would be foolish to predict which series the Indians will win in what’s left to them in 2019 and which they’ll lose. But it seems more than reasonable to expect that they’ll lose at least as many as the A’s need them to, unless the green and gold has an unlikely melt down and need Cleveland to do the same.
That leaves the thorny problem of the Tampa Bay Rays. FanGraphs computes their probable record at the end of the season as 95-67, two games behind the A’s 97-65. If not a razor thin margin, it’s still a well-sharpened scissors thin one, one close enough for FanGraphs to give the Rays a 60% chance of a play off spot. They give the A’s a 96.3% shot at that, and they calculate each team’s chance of winning the wild card game as the same as their getting into it, that is, 60% and 96.3%, respectively. The team from St. Petersburg has the most challenging schedule of the three contenders for the two wild card berths. They’ll battle the Red Sox, the Green Monster, and Peskey’s Pole tomorrow through Sunday. That’s tough, but what’s awaiting them is tougher. They go to the Bronx, where the Yankees will be fighting for home field advantage, not just in the Division Series, which they already have qualified for, but in the rest of the postseason. A strong opponent with something worth fighting for is a formidable obstacle to fulfilling FanGraph’s computerized forecast, and the Bombers just might keep Tampa Bay from reaching the 95-win mark.
So there are grounds for reasonable, but guarded, optimism about the A’s chances as they take on , with Fiers, Manea, and Roark on the mound, the Rangers this weekend in Oakland.
Fiers has gotten rid of the nerve irritation that cut short his last start and also has gotten rid of his number six, lying on its back beard by cutting it off entirely, thereby restoring his facial equilibrium. He didn’t pitch well in his two starts at Texas this summer, but he’s been having an excellent season overall, including a no-hitter and a near record streak of starts without losing. Like most of the A’s rotation, he’s bullpen reliant. Manaea has looked great since coming off the IL, and Roark’s 3.83 ERA over 47 innings since joining the A’s at the trade deadline was inflated by two of the runners he’d left on base in his last start scoring after he’d been relieved. The Rangers haven’t yet announced their Sunday starter. Of the two they have announced, the choice for Friday, Mike Minor, is the one more likely to give the A’s trouble. He’s 13-9, 3.33 ERA, but only 5-4, 4.22 ERA at home.
Then it’s on to Anaheim for a pair of games against the Angels. The Halos are having an awful season and have been further weaken by the loss of Shohei Ohtani, but they’re always a menace when they play the A’s.
The A’s will close out the season with a four-game series against Seattle at T-Mobile Park, booking ending their opening and closing games of the 2019 season against the same team but in a different domed facility. My guess is that it will be then that they decide (or learn) if there’s life after game 162 for them. I think there will be, in spite of the problems that still hover over them. The bull pen remains is unpredictable. Khris Davis isn’t going to carry the team on his shoulders. (I suspect that he’s been playing hurt). Jurickson Profar isn’t throwing wildly, but he still looks awkward with his throws, and, though he has power batting left, it’s from the right side that his batting average is good. Since most pitchers are right-handed, this combination makes Profar’s somewhat of a weak spot in the batting order. Laureano’s legs aren’t 100% yet, and Piscotty’s on the IL. Chapman’s BA is slipping, but he’s still a joy to watch in the field. And Oakland counts with (if not yet on) some definite assets that were missing before September. Luzardo and Puk, though still relatively untested, have been all you could hope for. Manea has been (knock wood) lights out. Brown and Murphy are looking good and might find their way on to a post season roster, if there is one, with some judicious juggling of the injured list.
Another plus is Mark Canha’s stepping up to the role of every day center fielder. From high power, low average utility player, he has become a well-rounded batter whose defense has improved from good to excellent thanks to his playing consistently in one position. Not to mention Semien and Olson, both of whom, in addition to their prowess at the plate and their virtues in the field, help compensate for Profar’s throwing problems. Let’s hear it, too, for Liam Hendriks and Yusmeiro Petit.
The great comedy team of Bob and Ray, the voices of Harry and Bert Piels in a classic series of beer advertisements from the 1950s, used to sign off their radio show by saying, “Write if you get work and hang by your thumbs.” We’ll have to settle for hanging by our thumbs for a while.
