Arizona Diamondbacks’ Daulton Varsho belts a two single against the San Francisco Giants in the top of the third inning at Oracle Park in San Francisco, Monday, July 11, 2022.
Arizona (39-48). 4. 10. 0
San Francisco (43-42). 3. 8. 1
Monday, July 11th, 2022
By Lewis Rubman
SAN FRANCISCO–In Monday’s game notes, the Giants published this item about Alex Cobb, their starting pitcher, who brought a 3-3 record with him to the mound: “While his ERA is currently 4.58, his ERA is 2.70 … that is in the top 12 percent of the MLB.” They made the same comment before his last previous start, which came a week ago against the White Sox, although his expected ERA then was in the top five percent.
That remark intrigued me. On what exactly, I wondered, is the expected ERA based? So I went to https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/expected-eraExpected ERA (xERA), and here’s what I found.
“Definition
“Expected ERA, or xERA, is a simple 1:1 translation of Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA), converted to the ERA scale. xwOBA takes into account the amount of contact (strikeouts, walks, hit by pitch) and the quality of that contact (exit velocity and launch angle), in an attempt to credit the pitcher or hitter for the moment of contact, not for what might happen to that contact thanks to other factors like ballpark, weather, or defense.
“By converting this to the ERA scale, it puts xwOBA in numbers that are more familiar, and allows it to be compared directly to the pitcher’s actual ERA. (If you’re familiar with FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, the idea is similar, just that now Statcast quality of contact can be included.)
“xERA is not necessarily predictive, but if a pitcher has an xERA that is significantly higher than his actual ERA, it should make you want to take a closer look into how he suppressed those runs.”
At least it isn’t based on fielding independent pitching, a statistic that has bothered me for a long time. After all, a good pitcher not only relies on his fielders; he makes his pitch choices based on them, their range, their arms, their positioning But MLB’s cclosing suggestion raised my eyebrows.
Why not ask what made the pitcher yield all those runs that the individual components of his performance would be expected to prevent? Was it an improper weighting of the importance of exit velocity at its companions? Or was it bad fielding?
Errors, of course, wouldn’t effect a pitcher’s earned run average, but not all fielding mistakes are errors. I decided to try to increase my awareness of the Giants’ fielding mistakes that were scored as errors, and see if scoring rules like “never anticipate a double play” and other such minutiae were responsible, at least in part, for Cobb’s anomalous statistics.
His performance in tonight’s disappointing 4-3 loss which brought the home team’s record to just one game over .500 at 43-42, wasn’t particularly noteworthy.
He allowed three runs, all earned, on six hits in as many innings and four walks, accompanied by an equal number of strikeouts. He threw exactly 100 pitches, 57 counting for strikes. He took the loss, bringing his record to 3-4 but lowering his ERA to, 4.57.
Cobb’s opposite number was the 33 year old right handed veteran of the Diamondbacks, the SK Wyverns of the Korean Baseball Organization, and the Tampa Bay system, Merrill Kelly, sporting a 7-5, 3.42 mark.
He threw an impressive 7+ frames, during which he delivered 101 pitches, 38 of which were balls. He left with a runner on first, having allowed just one, earned run, on five hits and two walks, having earned four Ks.
He was charged with a second, posthumous, run when LaMonte Wade, Jr., whom he had walked to start the inning, scored. DECISION, and now has a won-lost record of 8-5 and an earned run average of 3.36.
Arizona took the lead in their half of the third. Alek Thomas singled to right with one out. Ketel Marte hit a grounder to second baseman Wilmer Flores, who threw to Brandon Crawford for the force on Thomas, but Marte beat Crawford’s relay to first.
Perhaps crisper fielding would have resulted in an inning ending double play. In any case, Christian Walker singled to right, driving in Marte with the game’s initial tally. David Pealta followed with a base knock to right and advanced to second while Walker moved on to third when Luis González let the ball get away from him.
That went as an error on the Giants´right fielder. After Buddy Kennedy walked to load the bases, Daulton Varsho unloaded them with a line drive double into the right field corner. Bam! The Diamondbacks were up, 3-0. All three runs were earned, so those fielding lapses weren’t the type I was looking for.
San Francisco got a run back in the bottom of the fourth. Flores smacked a one out double into the left field corner and advanced to third on Belt’s single to right. Varsho didn’t control the ball, so I don’t know why Flores didn’t keep running.
It turned out that he didn’t have to; González hit into a force at second to bring Flores home. It looked as if the orange and black might keep the line moving long enough to come all the way back when, with David Villar at the plate, González stole second, and then Kelly issued a free pass to Villar. But Crawford grounded out to second, and the inning ended with San Francisco trailing Arizona, 3-1.
Jarlín García replaced Cobb to open the seventh and stayed around long enough to give up a single to Josh Rojas and get Thomas to ground into what was effectively a double play but which was scored, precisely and correctly a fielder’s choice force out, short to third in the shift, and an out on Thomas trying to advance by turning the wrong way after he crossed first.
García’s last act on the mound was to yield a rule book two bagger to Ketel Marte and exiting the scene in favor of Mauricio Llovera, who walked Walker before fanning Peralta to keep the ‘backs from extending their 3-1 lead.
Llovera continued his stint by hurling the eighth. He walked leadoff batter Jake McCarthy, pinch hitting for Kennedy. With Varsho, who eventually popped out to first, at bat, McCarthy swiped second.
Sergio Alcántara, pinch hitting for catcher Carson Kelly, came through with a single to left center to score McCarthy with the visitors´fourth run. Alcántara took second on the throw, and Llovera was through for the night, yielding to Sam Long, who unleashed a wild pitch to Geraldo Perdomo that brought Alcántara 90 feet from home.
But Long stymied the Diamondbacks, getting Perdomo to ground out to Crawford with a drawn in infield and getting Rojas on a called third strike.
The Giants weren’t dead yet. Wade drew a leadoff walk in the eighth. Ball four was Kelly’s last pitch. All-StarJoe Mantiply relieved him and surrendered an infield single to Darin Ruf, hitting for Pederson, that moved Wade to second.
Flores then hit as ball down the third base line that bounced off the bag and went into left field for a run producing double. He advanced to third on Belt’s ground out to short. A walk to González ended Mantiply´s brief tenure on the mound.
He was succeeded by Noé Ramírez, who walked David Villar on a full count with the Giants just one behind, 4-3, and Crawford at the bat. He grounded into what, in an extremely close call, first base umpire Quinn Wolcott ruled was a 3-6-1 double play. The Giants challenged the ruling, which was confirmed by Laz Daz and Bill Miller in New York.
Dominic Leone, coming in to pitch the top of the ninth, yielded a leadoff double to Thomas on a solid liner to right. Marte popped up to Crawford, playing to the right of second base. Walker flew out to right, but the ball went deep enough for Thomas to move up to third.
DeLeone conceded an intentional walk to Peralta, setting up the force at second and bringing José Herrera, who had replaced Carslon Kelly as catcher, to the plate. He hit a grounder that went through Ruf´s legs at first, but Flores threw him out to end the frame.
Mark Melancon came in to try to save the game of Arizona. Yaz led off with a single to left. Yermín Mercedes hit for the still struggling Bart and hit a sharp grounder to second, Alcántara threw to shortstop Pedromo, who couldn’t get off a throw to first because Yastremzki’s slide had taken him out.
The Diamondbacks challenged the legality of the slide, but the play was ruled legal on review. This brought up Wade, who was one for three so far in the game. He fouled out to third. Melancon now faced Ruf. The count went to 2-2, and then. … Ruff swung and missed at a 92 mph cutter.
Melancon earned the sve, his 12th.
Tomorrow at 6:45 Logan Webb (7-3,2.98) will try to keep the Giants from falling to .500. He’ll face southpaw Dallas Keuchel (2-6,7.63)
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