Photo credit: sfexaminer.com

By Lewis Rubman

OAKLAND — After winning three out of four games against the AL West-leading Astros and sweeping a three game series against the AL East-leading Yankees, the A’s still trail Houston by seven games. The Astros seem pretty much of a lock for the division title, having a magic number of 28 with 33 games left to play. Oakland, meanwhile, has 35 games to go, including the suspended contest of May 19, in which they were leading Detroit 5-3 in the bottom of the seventh. That game will be resumed on September 6 as a prelude to the full game the two teams will play at the Coliseum. That means that if Houston were play .500 ball for the rest of the season, the A’s would have to go 25-10 to tie them at the season’s end. 25-10 is a winning percentage of .714, the mark of the 1927 Murderers’ Row Yankees. That’s why Fangraphs’ granting the A’s only a 0.8% chance of winning the division makes a lot of sense.

But the huge disparities like this between the numbers one and two teams in a division is one of the reasons the wild card system was devised. The A’s outlook is a lot brighter there. Fangraphs give them a 59.3% chance of a wild card birth and a 60.1% making it to the ALDS. And (dare we even think about it?) Fangraphs’ calculations put the A’s chances of winning the World Series at 1.8%, with 10 teams ahead of them on the list.

So let’s take a look at the A’s opponents in their remaining regular season games, concentrating on what seem to be the toughest ones.

Tomorrow and Sunday, the A’s wind up the Bay Bridge Series with two afternoon games against San Francisco at the Coliseum. The Giants may have peaked on August 17, when their 11-6 win over Arizona put them first in the NL West wild card chase with a record of 63-61. Since then, they’ve lost four straight games and trail St. Louis by six games for a wild card berth. That doesn’t make them look like candidates for the toughest foes group, but it would be unwise to underestimate the power of an intense rivalry like the one between the two local teams.

San Francisco will pit two contrasting starters against the A’s. The left handed face of the franchise, veteran Madison Bumgarner (8-8, 3.72) will take the mound on Saturday, followed on Sunday by Logan Webb, the right-hander who won the August 17 game in his first and only major league appearance, when he held the Diamondbacks to one earned run in five innings. The A’s will go with Chris Bassit, who recently has been dealing a hot hand, and Brett Anderson, respectively.

Anderson has been reliably strong in the early innings but has tended to weaken notably in the middle frames. I suspect that he could best be used in stretch drive as an opener, but not if he’s used the way most openers are, throwing an inning or two, but for one or two times through the batting order, to be followed by a middle inning reliever. The name of A.J. Puk, who was electric but wild in his big league debut against the Yankees on Wednesday, comes to mind. So does that of good old reliable Yasmeiro Petit.

Ramón Laureano has been progressing in his recovery from the right shin stress reaction that has kept him on the IL since July 31, and there is talk that he could see action this week end, when the A’s California League affiliate Stockton Ports play against the San José Giants. If all goes well, Laureano could be with the A’s soon after their series with San José’s parent team has ended. This could alleviate the difficulties the A’s are experiencing from Khris Davis’ painfully slow return to the form he was displaying before his injury playing left field in Pittsburgh back on May 5. That relief would be obtained by freeing up Chad Pinder, Mark Canha, or a combination of the two for DH duty. Laureano also is a possible designated hitter, especially if Bomel wants to rest the youngster’s legs.

The A’s will fly to Kansas City following Sunday’s tilt against the Giants for a four-game set against the Royals before heading further east for three games against the Yankees, starting on August 30. Don’t bet on a repeat of this week’s sweep.

It’s too soon to know who the Bombers will send to the mound, but if everybody pitches on turn, it would be the same trio that opened the three games in Oakland, Domingo Germán, J.A. Happ, and Masahiro Tanaka. The strongest of that group would seem to be Germán. But, for all of his league leading sixteen wins, his ERA is a pretty non-intimidating 4.15 ERA. The ERA of the 5-5 Happ sits at 5.58, and the once formidable and still difficult Tanaka has the mediocre record of 9-7, 4.58 ERA. Assuming that the A’s rotation also will remain unaltered, Anderson, Bailey, and Fiers would be pitching for the Green and Gold. I’ve already mentioned my reservations about Anderson and how they might be resolved. Bailey’s ERA since coming to Oakland is one-tenth of a run higher than Happ’s season record, but if you discount his disastrous two-inning stint against the Astros on July 22, it comes out as a 3.75 ERA. Fiers probably is the ace of the A’s mound corps.

The A’s have a day off for travel after the Yankee series before returning to the Coliseum to face the Angels and Tigers, then it’s on to Houston.

Oakland will have gone to New York with a 3-0 record against the Yankees. That’s too small a sample to have much predictive value, but it’s nice to know. The same can’t be said about the team’s record against the Astros as they go into the four-game series that starts in Space City on September 9. In spite of Oakland’s triumphs at home last week, their hosts for the the upcoming series hold a 10-5 advantage over the course of the season. The bright side is that the A’s have won four of the six games they’ve played against the Astros since the 11-1 drubbing they received in the fatidic fray of July 22, the day that bulked up Bailey’s ERA.

While it was reasonable to anticipate the pitching matchups of the Stadium series, September 9 is too far down the road to make an informed guess at who will be pitching against whom in Houston. It’s possible that the Astros will have sewn up the division championship by then and that their principal aims will be staying in shape, avoiding injuries, and gaining home field advantage for the post season. That last is a not unimportant goal, especially considering the quirky contours of Minute Maid Park. Similarly, the A’s position vis-à-vis the other wild card contenders, not to mention the health of Jesús Luzardo, will exert a heavy influence on Oakland’s mound choices. With all these unknowns and more, it would be unwise to try to forecast the outcome of the four-game set in Houston, but it would be downright foolhearty to expect anything better for the A’s than a split.

I’ve haven’t talked in this column about games the A’s are scheduled to play against the Royals, Angels, Rangers, or Mariners. Although all of these teams are out of contention, none should be taken for granted. Indeed, the cliché about any given team on any given day is a cliché precisely true. Besides, also fans relish the role of spoilers. Still, taking into account the possibility of a surprise is a corrective for overconfidence, but it’s not particularly helpful in making even tentative predictions.

I’ve alluded to, but not discussed, what the A’s major competition for the wild card will be doing in the rest of the season. It’s tough enough to gauge the A’s hopes based on what they can control; it’s fruitless to speculate at this point about games of which they’re nothing but scoreboard watchers. Nonetheless, based on the team’s performance so far this season, and especially in the last week, I’d say that there’s reason for guarded optimism about seeing October baseball in the Coliseum.

How’s that for going out on a limb?