Giants’ post-season plan: Survive August in order to thrive in September

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By Morris Phillips

Wiped out at Wrigley.  A new wave of injuries.   Bum, an iffy Cain, and pray for several days of rain.

For the Giants, life as defending champions has been filled with optimism, inconsistent play and a lot of injuries. Start with the revolving door of a disabled list, add the team’s recent, dismal play and questions about the team’s post-season viability multiply like signs of global warming.

Simple math–with 51 games to play, the Giants look like the seventh horse in a six-team race for five playoff spots.  Clearly better than the eight also-rans below them in the National League standings and slightly poorer than the six clubs ahead of them, the Giants are in need of changing the math dramatically in the remaining eight weeks.

With limited options, the Giants maintained a steady presence in San Diego over the weekend scouting the Phillies’ Chase Utley.  The 36-year old infielder is hitting .189 with 228 at-bats in an injury-marred season.  Could Utley keep the Giants from Panik-ing about Joe’s absence at second base?  Sure, but this would be more of an insurance move than an upgrade.

So the Giants appear married to improvement within the ranks.  But the immediate schedule offers no breaks.  Monday marks the only day off in a 23-game stretch of playoff contenders that actually gets tougher in the remaining 13 games.  After home games against the Astros and Nationals, the Giants visit St. Louis and Pittsburgh, homes of arguably the two best teams in baseball.

Following that stretch: one day off, then the Cubs, Cardinals again and then three games at Dodgers Stadium.

If the Giants can survive the next 22 games, they could thrive in the final 29.  In the final month, only the four home games against the Dodgers figure to be against a team with a winning record.

Trailing the Dodgers by three games in the NL West, and the Cubs by 3 ½ games in the wild card, the Giants will likely have to accomplish both.  Winning 12 of the next 22, and then 19 of the final 29 would give the Giants 90 wins.  Win 90, and the Dodgers would have to win 29 of their remaining 50 games to avoid a one-game playoff with their rivals.

On Monday at press time, the Dodgers were putting the final touches on a four-game losing streak of their own, losing 7-0 to Nationals at home.

Could the Giants catch the Cubs?  Sure, but it figures to be a much tougher task.  With 52 games remaining, Chicago has more games against bottom dwellers Milwaukee and Philadelphia (13), than they do against the Cardinals and Pirates (12).   Plus, after a dismal weekend in Chicago, the Cubs appear to be a better, and more resourceful club than the Giants.  In contrast, the Dodgers look vulnerable.

But before the Giants can conquer their competition, they must answer the questions about themselves.

The biggest issue is the health of Panik, Andrew Susac, Mike Leake and Nori Aoki.  Aoki will be evaluated before Tuesday’s game after he was hit in the head by a pitch on Sunday and was removed in the third inning.  Susac, Panik and Leake are expected to be healthy enough to return in the next 10 to 14 days.  Without that quartet, the remainder of August gets that much tougher as the team’s depth and versatility has taken a noticeable hit.

In his weekly turn on KNBR Monday, Giants’ broadcaster Mike Krukow focused on the team’s depth, saying “they don’t have a lot of guys able to come up for an at-bat late in a ball game.”

The team’s overall pitching thus far has been simply OK.  Currently, seventh in the NL in team ERA, the Giants trail all of the other six teams vying for the NL playoffs.  Conversely, their pitching numbers are noticeably better than the league’s eight also-rans.

For improvement, the Giants need some quality starts from Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong, Chris Heston and Matt Cain.  All four were roughed up in Chicago, and Heston suffered his second, subpar outing.  Cain hasn’t been effective since his return, and Peavy saw 32 of his 101 pitches fouled off on Sunday.  Vogelsong allowed six hits in four innings in his first start since June 11.  Vogey hasn’t really pitched well over a stretch of appearances since May.

If those four can’t change their luck, Tim Lincecum and Tim Hudson could be in the mix.  But the likelihood either will be activated before September 1?  Extremely slim.

Offensively, the Giants have the answers, but the lineup needs to regain health and stability.  Susac’s return could be critical with Buster Posey hitting everything, but likely to wear down without a break or two.  Pagan, Aoki and Blanco are limping to the finish, but could show improvement with regular rest.  Hopefully, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford and Hunter Pence can be catalysts with Matt Duffy a question mark because the lithe infielder hasn’t played a full season at the big league level yet.

The bullpen’s been managed wisely as of late, but overall, the relief core hasn’t been great.  In order for the Giants to thrive, the relievers—led by Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo—may have to be great down the stretch.   One good sign: the bullpen has its health for the first time with Hunter Strickland, Jeremy Affeldt and Yusmiero Petit poised for increased workloads.

On Tuesday, the Giants open a six-game homestand with Madison Bumgarner facing Scott Kazmir at 7:15pm.

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